A model of intermediate complexity for ecosystems (MICE) has been developed by André Punt and co-authors as part of the OMF’s Pacific sardine working group. The MICE model is an additional tool for exploring the ecosystem impacts of the Pacific sardine harvest control rule, and particularly the impacts on brown pelicans and California sea lions. The model is for the California Current, includes three forage species (sardines, anchovies and “other”), two predators (pelicans and sea lions) and an “other prey” category. The model assesses the consequences of sardine fisheries management systems in Canada, USA and Mexico. The primary sources of uncertainty in the model, important for future efforts to explore impacts of sardine harvest, are the impacts of prey abundance on predator demographics and the degree of environmental influence on prey population dynamics.
The paper is published in the October 2016 issue of Ecological Modelling (337: 79-95).